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- FROM PETROL TO DIESEL
- Another French example
- of change in car use
- according to fuel prices
- Laurent HIVERT, INRETS-DEST
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- The problem of « new dieselists » : a behavior=
al
change in car ownership and use
- Short data description : the « Parc Auto »
panel survey and some =
key
figures
- Method of observation of the behaviours in the panel database
- Some important results of the 1995-2000 observation period (updating=
a
previous research 1985-1995)
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- For short term reactions to fuel price increase, our results show the
influence of many factors, but particularly :
- an income effect
- a residential location effect
- Disparities in mileage change also refer to :
- to number of cars
- to engine type choices
- to engine type changes, and finally
- to price differential and tax system between both fuel types
- That is a reason why we also wanted to study the transitions between
both engine types
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- Replacing petrol for diesel represent probably a more long term
strategic adaptation to fuel price increase :
- More and more choose diesel (lower consumption, with a less expensive
fuel)
- but doing this,
- They can drive more while spending less
- How do they change their car use ?
- Is this change the same for all ?
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- designed by INRETS and SOFRES
- conducted by SOFRES (French polling institute) among a panel sample<=
/li>
- allowing to follow the evolutions of car ownership and car use
- financed by
- ADEME, the French Agency for Environment and Energy Management
- CCFA, French Car Manufacturers Committee
- FFSA, French insurance companies Committee
- DSCR, the Department of road safety
- Annual waves (last available at inrets : 2002) :
- at the end of the year,
- by a self-administered questionnaire
- 10 000 panellists (renewal rate of approx 1/3 each year)
- describe every car (private cars and light trucks) of the fleet
available in their household
- (car ownership, characteristics and car use, mileage and consumptio=
n)
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- The database “ Parc ”,
- gathers all the annual waves of this survey together (1983-2001)
- organized, maintained and exploited at INRETS since 1983
- This permanent system is one of the most important continuous
observation tools :
- of the national market (for new brand and second hand cars)
- of the national car fleet and
- of the French households behaviour
- It allows to follow the dynamics in car ownership and use with both =
:
- Cross-section global indicators (fleet size, averages of mileage and
consumpt.)
- longitudinal analyses, using disaggregated pairing of the observati=
ons
present in consecutive waves of the panel survey (e.g. : “new
dieselists”)
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- The panel system allows us to focus on specific topics
- or specific sub-samples
- for closer analysis
- with specific survey
- For example : the “new dieselists” survey and study fina=
nced
by the Interdepartmental Mission for Greenhouse Effect (MIES)
- worried about the penetration of diesel cars in the fleet (a
determinant factor of traffic growth in France)
- and the long term effects of this phenomenon on the Environment (GH=
G)
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- car ownership
- 8/10 households are motorised (79% > 80%),
- 3/10 have more than 1 car (28% > 31%) :
- multi-ownership grows faster
- household motorisation : 1.11 > 1.16 cars/hh
- residential location=
li>
- from higher to lower densities, and with urban sprawl, ownership va=
ries
from 1 to 2
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- fleet structure
- 1/2 car is second hand (54% > 58%)
- the fleet gets older (6.6 > 7.3 years and 86 > 96,000 km
odometer)
- the fleet concentrates more and more between 4 and 7 fiscal horsepo=
wer
(89 > 91%) - models diversification (urban, 4 wheels)
- proportion of Diesel increases more and more in the new purchases a=
nd
thus in the fleet
- car use
- mileage seems to stabilize (or slightly decrease) around 14,000 km,=
- average speed around 40 km/h and is increasing despite of congesti=
on
- ~30% of the mileage is for commuting, and this proportion is slight=
ly
decreasing
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- Among the recent and major trends (1996-2001), proportion of Diesel
increases more and more :
- 39% -> 60+% of the new brand market,
- 32% -> 42% in the car fleet
- 44% -> 53% in the global (growing) traffic
- Even if sometimes fuel prices increased brutally (+15% and +21% in
2000), Diesel fuel remains cheaper, from 30% in the nineties to 27% =
in
2001
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- 40% of the new annual purchase, 60% of the fleet, again increasing
despite of cost
- A fuel 1/4 to 1/3 less expensive
- Almost 19,000 km/year (vs 11,000 for petrol), slightly decreasing
because of new supplies
- Almost the same fuel expense until 2000 (8% higher in 2001)
- Almost 50% of the 400 billion km of the national traffic
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- Source : « Parc Auto » Panel –
Team : INRETS-DEST
- Actualization of a previous research (1985-1994) to the
1995-2000 period (for Transport Min.,
MIES and ADEME)
- Methodology : estimate car- and hh-km variation before/after replaci=
ng a
petrol car by a diesel, with 3 years pairing [ t-1, t, t+1 =
;] (t
in [1995, 2000], 3 under-periods )
- Socio-eco-demog. characteristics of such households
- Estimating per car and per household mileage variations
- Unweighted estimations
- respects former methodology for comparability
- Typology (cluster) based on mileages evolutions
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- km : + 27% (from 15 160 to 19 240)
- urban +26%, motorway +40% — work +4,4%
- consu : + 20% (annual in oil-equivalent)
- consu : - 21% (annual =
in
Francs)
- (from 0.45 F/km to 0.28 F/km)
- emiss : from - 50% to - 90+%
- But CO2 : + 38% (to be validated)
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- Increasing recourse to second hand market allows increase of
dieselisation and multi-ownership, but variable influence on mileage
variation for periods :
- 6/10 of the « new diesel » are
« second hand » cars
- 6/10 of the « diesel faithful » are
« new » cars
- 94-95, almost same ∆km for new/second hand
- 96-98, more second hand with lower ∆km
- 99-00, more second hand (secondary veh.) and higher ∆km
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- The category of « low km » developped recently=
- (km < 10 000 for 1/5 of the « new dieselist &raq=
uo;)
- Low « before and after » is not the general ca=
se :
56%=3D (diagonal), 34%+ (higher trg) and 9%- (lower trg)
- In exact values, mileage stricly increases (65%), stable (12%),
decreases (23%) (« need » ?)
- 99-00 amplifications (more lower, more higher…)
- important changes for second cars (spouse, children)
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- Mileage is higher for home-to-work « before »
(16200 vs 13200)
- The highest increase are not due to h-to-w mobility :
- For 2/3, ∆kmHW =3D - 2660, ∆km =3D + 3150 (14 900)
- For 1/3, ∆kmHW =3D + 6860, ∆km =3D + 6650 (depuis 15 50=
0)
- (they probably need to increase km, changing engine allows this)=
li>
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- Amplification of mono-car dieselisation (particularly retired
households)
- More dieselisation of well-off household second cars
- Perhaps a « need » (?) for accessing car-mobil=
ity
for the youngest and poorest (maybe with a less huge km than
before…)
- =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=
=3D=3D=3D
- At the beginning of the years 2000, « new
dieselists » use represents about 20% of the global traff=
ic
(and their km increase is about 5% of the global traffic)
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- Not so clear yet that diesel diffusion induces km decrease
- From petrol to diesel : mileage increases, budget decreases, worrying
evolution for CO2 emission
- Great heterogeneity, many factors and various effects behavioural
changes and effects difficult to analyse and to elicit; need for clu=
ster
analysis
- even changes vary along the time ; evolution on cluster analysis
- Not obvious to find a potential for behaviour inflexions : many
behaviours (and behavioural changes) seem rather constrained (econom=
y,
locations, demography, longer term choices or constraints)
- Tax system and sustainability ? Apparent contradiction between equity
and environment goals ?
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- The continuation of the Diesel history in France is to be written=
230;
Some first points :
- %diesel in new brand market : 56% end 2001, 63% end 2002, 67,5% end
2003 (44% for Europe 2003)... and 69,2% end 2004
- %diesel in fleet : 40% end 2001, 42,5% end 2002, 44% end 2003... an=
d 46%
end 2004 (in a total car fleet growing 2,3%/year)
- %diesel in global traffic : 53% end 2001, 55% end 2002, 57% end 2003
(in a global traffic =
approx
constant 2001-2003)
- but
- diesel fuel less and less cheap : 25 to 23% in january 2002, 2003,
2004... but 13% in january 2005 !
- mileage/car slowly decreasing from 19000 (end 1999) to 17500 (end 2=
003)
- data for 2004-2005 impatiently waited… to be continued...
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- Marginally, deceleration of the growth of the car fleet (-1% approx.=
)
- more clearly, reduction in mileage (-2%), mainly on motorway (-4%) w=
hat
indicates a stronger sensitivity of long distance trips
- indeed, the price of the fuels represents a greater part of the co=
st
generalized of displacement on motorway than downtown where, becau=
se
of the congestion, time is the principal limit with the use of the=
car
- and especially (for a good half), choice orientation of motorists and
builders towards less greedy vehicles, therefore less polluting
(particularly in CO2)
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- The results of the “ new dieselists ” survey
permit a better characterization of the change for diesel engine,
altogether in terms of :
- before/after comparison of technical characteristics of the car and=
of
its use,
- reasons put forward,
- events that coincided with the change,
- opinions of the panellists on diesel motorization
- This investigation finally leads to the issue of a typology classify=
ing
the “ new dieselists ” in four different class=
es
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- Car fleet and traffic rather well known with global indicators but a=
t a
disaggregated level, household behaviours are much less stable and
permanent
- global trends vary slowly and hide important heterogeneity :
- inter-individual variations (disparities/inequality in car access a=
nd
use)
- inter-temporal variations (variability during household's lifecycle=
)
- Purpose of this research : Study both aspects for which behaviours,
behavioral changes seem very heterogenous :
- car access inequality (demotorisation)
- car dependence (ability to change)
- in order to understand/anticipate/influence possible changes...
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- PREDIT research (2003-2005)
- funded by ADEME,
- British (UCL)-German (IFV)-French (Paris 1, INRETS) partnership,
- discussed, for more sustainable mobility perspectives in :
- European COST Action « WATCH » (changing
behaviour for a more sustainable mobility)
- Japanese-French cooperation « SAKURA »
- Transitions in household behaviours study
- =3D> longitudinal analyses and use of panel data
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- Depending on contextual transitions, hh may change :
- car ownership (change of category between 0, 1, 2+ cars)
- car use (mileage with these cars)...
- and mode choices (± car-dependent or multimodal)
- Transitions in hh behaviour related to changes in :
- demography (lifecycle, and household structure)
- geography (locations)
- socio-economy (income and employment status, prices)
- For example, the transitions we study concern :
- For ownership, demotorisation and its impact on the mobility
- For use (in France), changes in residential location (moving)
- employment status and retirement...
- change for diesel engine
- adaptation to fuel price increase (in 1999-2000)
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- Important disparities remain between low and high incomes
- [INRETS, 2000-2002]
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- but, in the last 25 years of 20th century (Sofres, Insee) :
- inequality in car ownership decreases (1st car of the po=
or
households)
- inequality in second car ownership grows (2d cars of the rich
households)
- Spatial disparities : more cars in the lower densities areas
- inequality in car use is rather stable, except that traffic growth =
is a
little higher for poor households
- Income is not the only factor :
- professions and social categories influence fleet structure and car
choice (auto-repair ability for hand workers)
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- Seen through French "Parc Auto", German MOP, British BHPS
panel surveys, [IATBR, 2003]
- Global car ownership increase ≠ large changes of disaggregated
ownership
- Measuring « volatility » in the household
behaviour,
- Indicating a potential for influencing changes ?
- To be extended to EU with ECHP panel data (Eurostats)
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- 7% (GB), 5% (F), 4% (D) hh reduce ownership
- more partial than full, some relative, ~1/3 only transitory
- greatest volatility in GB (lowest in D),
- probably related to the cost of keeping a car
- many factors
- age, moving, changing employer or employment/retirement status
- dynamics is important
- (delays for unemployment/retirement, chg employer, adult leaving)<=
/li>
- various effects on mobility
- reduction in F, stability in D, increase of PT use
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- 7% (GB), 5% (F), 4% (D) hh reduce car ownership between any 2 years<=
/li>
- most demot. are partial from 2 to 1 car; full demot. rather rare (2%
(GB), 1% (F), 0,2% (D))
- greatest volatility in GB (lowest in D), probably related to the cos=
t of
keeping a car
- 1/4 to 1/3 of demotorisations are only transitory
- Factors influencing :
- more demot. for young hh, but after 50 years, reducing becomes more
important than increasing car ownership
- almost 1/3 car hh demotorise when an adult leaves the hh (partial, or
relative)
- moving house double the likelihood of demot.
- changing employer increases demot.
- fewer demot. are associated with change in employment status (->
unemployed or retired)
- Dynamics is important :
- delays for effect of :
unemployment (1 year), retirement (2 years),
- changing employer (3 years), adult leaving (1 year but effects
after 3 years if relative demotorisation are excluded)
- Effects on mobility :
- great car travel reduction in F (for 80% observ.), even if the use of
the remaining car increase
- In G, km, trips and time per person and day remain nearly the same
before and after (reduced previous to the demotorisation ?
- public transport use increase
- ... To be extended with ECHP data...
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- socio-economics of the household and of the Kish individual
- car ownership
- description of (max) 3 cars in the household
- (technical char. and car use, for commuting and other purposes)
- Recent topics and analyses on car ownership and car use :
- analysis of cars survival rates
- green stamp, and urban mileage of the old vehicles
- influence of residential location and density, moving
- demotorisation (and renting)
- catalytic converter, air conditioning system (impacts on consumptio=
n)
- multimodal habits
- inequalities between low and high income
- adaptation to fuel price increase, change of type engine
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